The Compound: No One Can Figure Out 5% Treasury Rates
The most watched financial instrument is the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond. That’s because the yield indicates a risk-free long-term rate of return. Recently, yields have been on the rise, from 3.6% in September to 4.8% now in January.
Typically, the 5% level represents a tipping point for stocks and the economy. That yield may be too high to be sustainable given current debt levels. But it may also entice buyers into Treasuries.
Rising bond yields are also occurring as the Federal Reserve has been cutting its interest rates. That’s resulting in a steepening yield curve. With the yield curve now un-inverted, investors are getting paid more for holding longer-dated bonds. But such un-inversions have often occurred shortly before a recession.
If that trend holds, investors could expect trouble in the next 9-12 months. However, the trend may not as part of the pandemic-era oddities.
If bond yields are rising because of a healthy economy, then the economy may not sour until 2026.
For now, high bond yields are keeping some markets out of favor. One such market is the housing market. While prices have moved higher overall, the rate has significantly slowed.
With mortgage rates near 7%, it’s the housing market taking the most pain in the financial markets right now.
