Author: Andrew Packer

Commodities

The Free Press: James Grant: The Case For Buying Gold

Posted on by Andrew Packer

Gold prices topped $3,500 per ounce this week. The metal continues to perform strongly in 2025. While stocks are still in correction territory, gold is up nearly 30%.

The metal has risen quickly in recent weeks, and may need to take a breather for a bit. But the fundamental reasons for gold’s rise remain intact. And since that’s the case, investors could be on track to see further returns in the metal this year.

Unlike in the 2010-2011 gold bull market, retail investors have been largely absent in this rally. Instead, it’s been central bankers making the big buys. That includes China, which may be liquidating dollars to buy gold. But also countries like Russia and Turkey.

With many nations around the world pulling back from international trade, gold stands out as a strong reserve holding. Rising political fears and monetary disorders make a strong case for holding gold.

With talk of an audit of America’s gold holdings at Fort Knox, some see more room ahead for gold.

That’s because there could be some use of that gold. It could be sold in part to acquire bitcoin or pay down the national debt. Or it could be used to back the U.S. dollar.

Either way, things are shaping up for a further increase in gold’s price in the months ahead. The next few weeks may be volatile, but could be a worthwhile time to add to gold or gold stock holdings.

 

To view the full case for gold now, click here.

Stock market strategies

Tastylive: How I use Market Fear to My Advantage

Posted on by Andrew Packer

Markets are in fear mode right now. That’s creating opportunities for investors and traders alike. Investors can buy great companies at a discount to their recent highs. That can mean buying a lower earnings multiple. Or, getting a higher starting dividend yield on income-paying stocks.

Traders have some advantages here as well. Market volatility is high. Big daily swings can be used to generate bigger profits. Or, the same profits with less capital than during calm periods.

Higher market volatility changes many variables in the options market. Changes in strike distances can lead to a bigger skew. This is where there’s a pricing mismatch between puts and calls.

For instance, a stock that’s been heavily hit in a market selloff may have a high skew in the put options. But buying the call options could mean a better bargain, especially if the stock rebounds.

Another factor is strike distance. That takes advantage of traders with a longer-term time horizon than short-term traders.

Rising market volatility tends to calm back down over time.

Traders who sell options when volatility is high can often profit as volatility declines. That’s true even if the underlying stock doesn’t make a significant move in either direction.

Market fears come and go. Fortunately, they can create more lucrative trading environments for those who know hose to take advantage of them.

 

To see the full impacts of skew and strike distance in volatile markets, click here.

Cryptocurrencies

The Pomp Letter: Here Is Good News About the Stock Market & Bitcoin

Posted on by Andrew Packer

Market uncertainty remains high. Monday’s 3% drop and the big gains on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, suggest that volatility is still the name of the game. But within that current market fear, there are some signs that things may start trending better in the months ahead.

One sign is that the more markets decline, the more likely they are to recover. Statistically, once stocks hit a 20% pullback, they tend to find some strength. Markets hit such a level last week.

Plus, global liquidity is on the rise along with the current uncertainty. Central bank liquidity gives businesses time and wiggle room amid trade and tariff headlines. Rising liquidity tends to mean higher asset prices over time, including stocks, gold, and bitcoin.

Usually coming out of a bear market decline, more speculative assets see the biggest returns. That includes small cap stocks, and in more recent cycles, bitcoin. Given the market’s love of big-cap tech stocks over the past few years, those companies may also benefit from a rallying market. However, there could still be a shift underway towards smaller-cap stocks.

While there’s no guarantee that stocks have bottomed, statistics make the case for stocks to find their footing here. Investors who start to put capital to work can likely see reasonable returns in the months ahead.

To see the full analysis behind the market pullback and what it means, click here.

Stock market

Lead-Lag Report: The Myth of Market Efficiency with Cullen Roche

Posted on by Andrew Packer

One of the key investment theories underlying investment ideas is known as the efficient market theory. The EMT states that any new information about a company or the economy is instantly digested.

Under this theory, investors are best to simply buy a market index. Beating the market is theoretically unlikely over long periods. Or such success can simply be attributed to luck rather than investment skill. The problem with this theory? It’s simply a myth.

 That’s because prices are always adjusting to new information, not because they’re right. Rather, it’s because they’re wrong.

Markets were wrong in 2020 about the impact of the pandemic, then sold off heavily. Then they soared following a flood of stimulus money. Only to slide again as that stimulus led to inflation.

Financial markets, no matter how sophisticated or computerized, remain subject to human whims. Emotional responses can cause the irrational to feel rational.

Today, with market uncertainty rising, investors who have blindly bought the dip are down and out for now. Over time, it’s likely that the market will recover. But how long that takes and the shape it takes can matter for returns.

Even great investors can get caught up in emotional traps, and with it, see poor returns.

 

To see the full impact of how markets aren’t as efficient as they seem, click here.

Economy

Bravos Research: This is Real

Posted on by Andrew Packer

Rising tariff rates in the United States are now back to levels last seen in the 1930s. Most recognize that the massive tariffs of the 1930s did little to spur economic growth. Quite the opposite. The economy shrank.

That suggests that tariffs are deflationary, not inflationary. The costs of imported goods will rise overall. But falling exports and declining imported volumes more than make up for those changes. If that holds true today, markets could be in for a rough ride.

Declining global trade didn’t start the Great Depression in the 1930s. But it arguably extended and deepened it. Today, shifting tariff rates reflect a desire to unwind decades of increased global trade. And to increase domestic manufacturing.

For some sectors, such as defense, domestic manufacturing makes sense, even if it’s not economically efficient. For other sectors, however, such as textiles, it seems like a massive inefficiency.

While the economy sorts out new tariff rates and even trade deals, uncertainty is the likely outcome in the months ahead. That will keep markets volatile. And it will take a significant trade deal with major partners and clear benefits. Until that happens, markets are unlikely to move back to all-time highs anytime soon.

It took decades for global trade to recover from the 1930s tariffs. This time around, it will likely move faster. But it will still mean havoc to the economy in the coming quarters.

 

To see the full analysis, click here.

Stock market strategies

The Investor Channel: FAANG Stocks Rocket Higher

Posted on by Andrew Packer

Tech stocks led the market higher in 2023 and 2024. In 2025, they’ve led the market lower. That’s typical of market selloffs. The big winners on the way up become the big losers on the way down.

But with markets now posting some up days recently, it may look like some of the risk in the tech stocks is over. And that it may be a time for investors to find a bargain amid the selloff.

In just a few trading days, many of the big-name tech stocks have led to 10% selloffs in many big names. But subsequent rallies have allowed for a sharp rebound.

What’s hitting the tech stocks hard? Most technology companies offer a service, which has been immune from tariff fears so far.

However, a change in regulatory issues could mean more rulings. European regulators have been hitting tech giants like Microsoft (MSFT) and Google (GOOG) with hefty fines in recent years. For now, it’s been treated like a cost of business.

However, tech manufacturer Apple (AAPL) has swung wildly on tariff news. It’s even had a specific, if temporary, carveout from tariffs to avoid a massive supply chain issue.

Mag 7 player Tesla Motors (TSLA) is also heavy on manufacturing. But its U.S. sales all come from manufacturing in the U.S. Demand for Tesla cars is shifting, however. And in China, the rise of cheaper EV companies could eat at Tesla’s margins.

In short, the tech space is shifting, and these companies may not be the obvious runaway winners as in years past.

 

To watch the full analysis, click here.

 

Commodities

Kitco News: Global Central Banks Continued to Boost Their Gold Reserves in February 2025

Posted on by Andrew Packer

Gold continues to be a standout asset class for investors. The metal was up over 20% in 2024, and even eked out the strong returns of the S&P 500. As stocks have faltered in 2025, gold has held up strong, with the metal topping $3,100 per ounce.

That trend looks set to continue. That’s because buying trend suggest that central banks continue to add to their physical gold holdings. And retail investors have largely stepped back from gold, for now.

In February alone, statistics show that the National Bank of Poland bought 29 tons of gold. That’s followed by the People’s Bank of China at 5 tons. The Republic of Turkey rounded up the top buyers with the purchase of three tons.

Gold has emerged as a safe-haven amid the current market uncertainty. The metal has even held up well as bond yields have swung wildly. Typically, bonds are a safe place for parking cash in the short-term.

With gold prices rising, gold mining stocks are pushing higher overall as well. The sector still looks undervalued, as the share price of gold miners has yet to catch up with prior rallies in gold itself.

Plus, while gold prices continue to rise, other assets, including fellow precious metal silver, continue to languish.

 

To see the full analysis on gold now, click here.

 

Income investing

The Compound: The 7 Best Dividend Stocks to Buy Now

Posted on by Andrew Packer

When markets falter, investors look for safety. For some, that may mean cash. Or short-term bonds. However, long-term investors tend to gravitate toward dividend-paying stocks.

These are companies with strong cash flows. They often have a long history of delivering returns to shareholders. Of the thousands of publicly-traded companies today, dozens have a history of increasing their payout for decades. That means these companies have an operating history that include the worst financial disasters.

Today’s economic uncertainty centers around tariffs and trades. Investors looking for safety should consider dividend-paying companies that aren’t reliant on trade.

For instance, telecom giant Verizon (VZ) has paid a dividend for over 40 years. With a current yield of 6.4%, it’s delivering hefty income for investors now.

Plus, with shares trading at 9 times forward earnings, it’s still a value today. And 96% of the company’s revenues come from the United States.

Utility Dominion Energy (D) has paid a dividend for a massive 92 years. And as a utility company, it generates 100% of its revenues in the U.S. Dominion currently pays a 5.4% dividend, and trades at about 15 times earnings.

Conagra Brands (CAG) reflects the fact that people have to eat. Conagra has paid a dividend for 49 years, and shares trade at 11 times earnings. That’s a strong valuation for the company’s basket of brands. Conagra gets 91% of its revenue in the U.S.

 

To see the full list of tariff and trade-safe dividend stocks now, click here.

Personal finance

A Wealth of Common Sense: Misbehaving in a Volatile Market

Posted on by Andrew Packer

Market volatility has soared in recent weeks. Typically, volatility measures how much investors expect the stock market to move on a daily basis in the weeks ahead.

With volatility elevated, it’s likely that stocks will continue to see big swings every day. That’s true even if the market doesn’t materially move much in a given week. The move in volatility is also likely to create opportunities for investors. However, it’s important to learn the right lessons.

For instance, stocks delivered some strong rallying days over the past few sessions. Consequently, some may think the market correction is over. That may not be true. Neither is it true that a down day for stocks could just be part of a further indefinite decline.

Volatility tends to lead to snap judgments based on the market’s recent moves, known as a recency bias.

In the meantime, investors often fall into the trap of confirmation bias. They may look specifically for information to support their worldview. In doing so, they discount data that may contradict their worldview.

For now, investors should take an objective look at their open positions. And determine if they’re still worth holding in the current environment. Holding great companies over the long haul tends to work out well as a strategy. Market fears will subside in time.

 

To see the full list of investor biases that can interrupt your wealth creation in a bear market, click here.

 

Economy

Bianco Research: Bonds “Center of the Universe,” Investors Will Want to Stock Pick

Posted on by Andrew Packer

The stock market’s recent selloff has spilled over into other asset classes. The most important asset class is bonds. Typically, bonds move far less than stocks. But they also represent more capital, and capital that investors want to preserve rather than grow.

The selloff in the bond market has pushed interest rates higher. That’s good news for bond buyers. For existing bond owners, it indicates a selloff. For now, the bond market move suggests caution across all asset classes.

Meanwhile, tariff news is leading to a volatile stock market. It’s not just one of rallies and declines, but of investors picking and choosing potential winners.

That’s in stark contrast to the past two years, when investors could simply buy the index, and benefit from rising stocks. Especially with the heavy weighting of the rallying Magnificent Seven plays. With that trend shifting, investors need to think more defensively.

That could bode well for sectors such healthcare, which has been a strong winner so far in 2025. Utilities tend to fare well in defensive markets also, and offer investors bond-like income returns.

Given that the tariff fears may resolve as quickly as they flared up, investors should think defensively now. But staying out of the stock market could mean losing out on strong potential returns.

 

To see the full interview, click here.