Author: Andrew Packer

Cryptocurrencies

Bravos Digital Assets: Ethereum Is About to See a Massive Short-Squeeze (Don’t Miss This)

Posted on by Andrew Packer

The cryptocurrency space is usually exciting. But over the past few months, the space has drifted lower. And in so doing, it’s fared worse than the overall stock market. Bitcoin is down 25% from its all-time highs.

Meanwhile, other cryptocurrencies can’t seem to catch a break. The second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum, has yet to make a new high this crypto cycle. And its overall price is still down more than 50% from all-time levels.

However, that could soon change. Given the lag in other cryptos relative to bitcoin, traders have smelled weakness. They’re exploiting it by shorting other cryptocurrencies, particularly Ethereum given its volume and liquidity.

That means that there’s a massive amount of short interest. Enough that a move higher in Ethereum could kick off a short-squeeze.

A short-squeeze occurs when an asset is heavily shorted and prices start moving higher. As gains become losses, it makes sense to buy back to close the short position. That buying pressure can cause prices to rise substantially and quickly.

Typically, a squeeze lasts until short interest is back to a historical level. And a price move that’s massively higher may see some of those gains decline. But the end result is that prices are far higher than where the short squeeze started.

 

To see the full rationale for a short-squeeze in Ethereum, click here.

Commodities

Commodity Culture: Silver Deficit Barreling Into a “Brick Wall”

Posted on by Andrew Packer

Gold was a runaway winner in 2024, outperforming even the S&P 500. The metal has continued to trend higher even as stocks have pulled back, finally breaking over $3,000 per ounce.

However, while gold has hit new all-time highs, other precious metals have lagged. Silver prices are in the low $30 range, well off of all-time highs near $50. Given how gold has performed, silver should, in theory, trade at a much higher price.

Most gold discoveries throughout history have been saved, whether in coins, bars, or jewelry. Silver has far more industrial uses than gold. That’s made it attractive for electronics. It’s a key metal in technologies like solar panels and electric vehicles.

As such, much silver gets used up. And over the past few years, stockpiles of physical silver have been in decline. If gold continues to push higher, investor interest in silver may take off even further given its lower price.

But with the current supply available, the metal could end up having a strong catch-up rally to gold.

A similar trend cold also play out in platinum and palladium. Those metals are both rarer than gold and have strong industrial uses. But they trade far less per ounce than gold right now.

Investors can play this potential trend with a variety of ways, from the iShares silver Trust (SLV), which owns physical silver, to buying physical silver itself.

 

For a full read on the precious metals market and silver’s opportunity now, click here.

 

Stock market

A Wealth of Common Sense: Volatility Clusters

Posted on by Andrew Packer

The stock market’s 10% correction from all-time highs is, in many ways, right on schedule. During 2024’s occasional pullbacks, stocks never hit a 10% correction. On average, markets correct once every two years.

Meanwhile, a bear market is a 20% drop from all-time highs. Those occur less often. Typically, there’s 1-2 per decade. The 2010s had no bear market. But 2020 and 2022 already saw bear markets. It’s highly unusual to have three bear markets in a decade.

With more and more capital invested in financial markets, both a downturn and a recovery seems faster than ever. That’s because money can move quickly. And more traders tend to push stocks around more over the short-term.

So, while there has been a bit of a volatility cluster in the 2020s, it’s not out of the norm. And even with the recent pullback, investors have fared incredibly well in the first half of the 2020s.

While economic trends and headlines may shift, rising productivity and better technology make lives better.

But human nature hasn’t evolved. We can still get overly greedy and push markets up too high. Or get too fearful, too quickly, and push markets lower. Some are already calling this market pullback nothing more than a “growth scare.” Time may yet prove them right.

 

To see the full trend of market corrections and bear markets, click here.

 

Economy

Rebel Capitalist: Was the Recession Just Canceled Due to This?

Posted on by Andrew Packer

The past few weeks have seen rising fears of a recession hitting the United States. Those predictions are based on the continued weakness in consumer spending. But other factors, like shrinking the size of government, can also play a key role in a slowdown in GDP.

However, some private sector data continues to look attractive. And several indicators show that the economy could continue to fare well. The prior week’s consumer and producer inflation data, for instance, showed that stagflation was less likely.

A new data piece this week on U.S. industrial production is also bullish for the economy. Simply put, industrial production rose 0.7% month-over-month, far better than the 0.2% expectation.

More importantly, U.S. industrial production is at an all-time high. Historically, there has never been a recession when production is at an all-time high. It needs to come down first before the rest of the economy slips into a recession.

Obviously, that doesn’t necessarily mean that a recession is cancelled. But it’s a strong data point that makes it unlikely.

And booming production suggests that the economy is still expanding. That’s bullish for the market. It suggests that stocks could still recover from their recent selloff and make new all-time highs this year.

There may still be increased uncertainty and volatility, but overall data isn’t as bad as it looks.

 

To see the full explanation behind industrial production’s role in the economy, click here.

 

Technical Analysis

ValueTrend: Near-Termed SPX Strategy

Posted on by Andrew Packer

The stock market’s recent pullback was the fifth-fastest pullback from an all-time high to a correction. After declining 10%, stocks have looked to recover a bit. Technical analysis provides a sign of key areas to recover to.

More importantly, prior market history suggests where to look for a sustainable bounce. That’s because technical levels play two roles depending on the price action.

On the way down, a key price range is a form of support, where buyers often come in. After that trend breaks, the key price range becomes resistance. That’s where traders may sell again, having seen enough of a bounce before going lower.

Currently, the 50-day moving average could be a key support level for markets. If the S&P 500 goes back to its 50-day and can hold above that level, it could continue higher. If so, it will likely continue through the summer until seasonal weakness kicks off in the fall.

If stocks cannot continue a relief rally and fail to regain and hold key levels, there could be further selling ahead. Given the mix of economic and headline news data, some area already calling this selloff a “growth scare.”

Given the current uncertainty, investors may want to carry a higher percentage of cash than what they would normally hold. But if stocks break higher, some of the most oversold tech stocks will likely rally the hardest.

 

To see the full technical indicators to watch now, click here.

 

Cryptocurrencies

Coindesk: Recent SEC Guidance on Memecoins Suggests Broader Policy Change

Posted on by Andrew Packer

The Trump administration has taken a pro-crypto policy stance. That’s included several measures that should increase cryptocurrency adoption and use in the years ahead.

The biggest shift came from the creation of a strategic bitcoin reserve (SBR). The initial SBR will hold the 200,000 bitcoin that the U.S. government has acquired over the years. The government has sold off about half of its bitcoin holdings and, in so doing, has lost out on over $18 billion in value.

Meanwhile, other pro-crypto activity abounds.

The SEC is changing its guidance on digital assets. One major change is that so-called memecoins will not be considered securities. That avoids the piecemeal legislative efforts made by prior SEC enforcement actions and lawsuits.

Previously, the SEC treated all cryptocurrencies as digital securities under their regulation. This shift could spur the creation, sale, and promotion of more memecoins. It also suggests that memecoins held in a portfolio are beyond the agency’s reach.

That’s a key point. It suggests that cryptocurrencies held in a digital wallet or in a portfolio should be treated as personal assets. In turn, that means that those transactions are beyond the reach of the SEC.

The decision is a strong move away from the prior regulation-by-enforcement actions. And this new guidance provides more clarity to make institutional investing in cryptocurrencies easier. Over time, that should increase the size and demand in the crypto space, leading to higher prices.

 

To see the full analysis, click here.

Income investing

Dividend Growth Investor: Five Dividend Growth Stocks Raising Dividends Last Week

Posted on by Andrew Packer

Although market uncertainty has been on the rise, cash dividends to shareholders represent a form of certainty. Once paid out, they can’t be retracted. And cash payments show that a company has the money to make the payment.

That money can only come from a few sources, such as earnings and excess cash flow. So over time, companies that pay a growing dividend take on a greater importance to investors. Even in trying times, dividend payers continue to up their payouts.

Recently, American Tower (AMT) raised its payout. AMT is a leading communications real estate investment trust that owns and operates cell towers.

This is a steady, if unexciting business. But it allows for steady cash payments that can increase over time. That’s thanks to escalation clauses in contracts for the use of cell towers.

AMT recently raised its payout by nearly 5%, for the 14th consecutive year. AMT now pays a 3.2% dividend yield. Today’s buyers can likely see their payouts continue to grow.

Another dividend increase came from General Dynamics (GD). The aerospace and defense contractor has raised its payout for 28 consecutive years. The recent payment was a 5.6% increase. Shares currently pay a yield of 2.2%.

Over time, slow and steady increases in income can turn dividend growth stocks into a powerhouse for your portfolio.

 

Click here to see the full list of dividend growth companies now.

Stock market strategies

The Financial Economics: Turning $1M Into $1B+

Posted on by Andrew Packer

Investors have plenty of strategies to turn to for their investment returns. Over the past few years, momentum investing, particularly in big-cap tech stocks has been a winner. That trend has sharply reversed in 2025.

Other strategies may take a more slow-and-steady approach. But over time, those strategies can allow investors to continually build on their returns. If market conditions are less bullish overall, these approaches may be more successful.

One such approach is value investing. Value can be a subjective term. But overall it means to take a long-term approach to buying stocks. And treating a stock like the fraction of a company that it is.

That means being mindful of metrics such as earnings, cash flow, and profit margins.

Some value investors also take a focused approach. Rather than buy the market as a whole, they may invest most of their money in their top 10 ideas.

This can mean a higher portfolio concentration. But for value investments that can pay off over time, some short-term pain will turn to long-term results.

Value investors also have the advantage of time. They don’t need the market to move a certain way within a certain amount of time. They can wait, and often get paid to do so with dividends, while valuations shift higher.

In short, taking a value approach can greatly compound returns over time.

 

To watch the full video, click here.

Retirement investing

A Wealth of Common Sense: How Many Americans Don’t Save For Retirement?

Posted on by Andrew Packer

With the stock market in decline, many retail traders may be rethinking their position. Some may even be headed for the exits. However, the latest data shows that investors remain just the top half of the American economy.

Just half of Americans own retirement assets such as stocks and bonds. The ratio is higher for those under 35 and over 75. Those in their working years are faring the best.

Overall, the picture isn’t great. Older households without retirement assets will be dependent on programs such as Social Security. At least younger households have time to play catch-up with their portfolios by investing today.

Currently, about 70% of private-sector investors have access to a 401(k) plan. That’s up from 60% a decade ago. Many 401(k) plans provide some employer matching behind them as well.

Overall, however, even mix of investors and non-investors shows the divisions across America today. Non-investors rely nearly entirely on Social Security to avoid total poverty. One estimate puts 16.3 million adults in this category.

A 401(k) plan is no guarantee of investment success or indefinite wealth in retirement. But it can at least create a strong cushion for a better retirement. Investors may want to increase their 401(k) contributions amid the latest market decline.

 

To see the full analysis, click here.

 

Economy

Heresy Financial: Fed Issues Urgent Warning: Recession Next Month

Posted on by Andrew Packer

Recent economic data has started to turn over. Some predictions now suggest that the economy could shrink in the first quarter of 2025. If that does happen and continues into the second quarter, it could mean that the year started out in a recession.

Why the warning? The move to cut government spending is a big part of the equation. The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is targeting $1 trillion in annual spending cuts.

Yes, that would free up private sector spending over time. But the loss of that added government spending now is bad for the economy now. Plus, laying off government workers will lead to higher unemployment until they can find a position in the private sector.

Meanwhile, rising tariff rates are also leading to lower expectations for the economy. Tariffs act as a tax on a specific good, so raising them reduces spending expectations.

Overall, the combination of cutting government spending and raising tariffs is mixed. It could lower the deficit substantially. Today’s massive deficits can’t be sustained forever, especially at today’s interest rates.

But the right-sizing of government spending does mean a period of economic pain. The real question is the severity of that pain. And how much it impacts the private sector. That’s part of the rising uncertainty that’s hit stocks over the past few weeks.

 

For the full analysis, click here.