The Pomp Letter: Are We in a Recession and Should You Be Worried?
Markets may have sold off largely from traders exiting the carry trade. But last week’s job data suggested another concern that markets may not have
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Markets may have sold off largely from traders exiting the carry trade. But last week’s job data suggested another concern that markets may not have
The market’s slump over the past two weeks has largely been driven by traders exiting the yen carry trade. Simply put, traders sell short the
It’s said on Wall Street that stocks climb a wall of worry. That’s been the case in recent months. The AI-driven part of
Over the past few years, traders and investors have had to exercise patience with the Federal Reserve. As the central bank started to raise interest rates,
While markets have pulled back slightly over the past few weeks, that’s a normal summer trend. The market tends to pause over the summer, decline
The real estate market has been largely “stuck” for nearly two years now. High mortgage rates have made homebuying challenging for first-time buyers. For existing
Commercial real estate has struggled in recent years. First, retail spaces saw a decline in demand as buying shifted online. But the pandemic led to a
Between 1968 and 1980, stocks traded flat. However, adjusted for the waves of inflation that occurred during the 1970s, real returns were close to -70%. So
Consumer spending remains the lion’s share of the U.S. economy. The past few years have seen some big shifts in consumer spending trends. During
While bear markets tend to last for 18 months on average, bull markets tend to last for years. Both 2020 and 2022 saw bear markets. It’
Markets stand at a pivot point. Growth is slowing. And unemployment has ticked higher. It’s now at 4%, right at the Fed’s target rate.
The stock market is having a strong year. So far, the only thing that has derailed the market rally has been some geopolitical fears back in