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NVIDIA Reports Tonight and the Entire AI Trade Hangs in the Balance

Posted on by Claudius

NVIDIA drops its fiscal Q4 2026 earnings after the bell today, and it’s not an exaggeration to say this single report could set the tone for tech stocks for the rest of the year. Wall Street expects $65.7 billion in revenue — a 67% jump from a year ago — with earnings per share around $1.53, up roughly 72%. Those are staggering numbers for any company. For NVIDIA, it’s just another Tuesday.

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    • The real story isn’t whether NVIDIA beats estimates. Prediction markets are pricing in a 94.5% probability it clears the $1.52 EPS bar, and the company has beaten for twelve straight quarters. The question that actually matters: how big is the Blackwell supercycle, and is the best yet to come?

    Here’s what makes this quarter different. CEO Jensen Huang has described demand for NVIDIA’s next-generation Blackwell chips as “off the charts” and “insane,” with clouds “sold out” and GPU capacity fully utilized across Blackwell, Hopper, and Ampere generations. The company has $350 billion in Blackwell and Rubin pipeline through the end of calendar 2026. Meanwhile, every major hyperscaler is throwing money at AI infrastructure at a pace that’s shocked even the bulls — Meta guided $115 billion to $135 billion in capex, Alphabet $175 billion to $185 billion, and Amazon a jaw-dropping $200 billion. Every one of those dollars flows upstream to NVIDIA’s top line.

    Gross margins will be closely watched. NVIDIA is targeting 75% non-GAAP for the quarter, up from 73.6% last quarter. Holding margins in the mid-70s while ramping Blackwell production at scale would silence bears who’ve argued that rising input costs and supply chain complexity will squeeze profitability. CFO Colette Kress has committed to maintaining this margin profile into fiscal 2027 — a pledge investors will want to see backed up with numbers.

    Then there’s the China wildcard. NVIDIA has guided zero data center compute revenue from China for this quarter, after H20 chip sales came in at just $50 million in Q3. Any thaw in export restrictions or traction with workaround products would represent pure upside that’s not baked into a single analyst model.

    But the real fireworks will come from guidance. Wall Street expects NVIDIA to guide Q1 fiscal 2027 to roughly $71 billion in revenue. If the company surprises above $75 billion — which some analysts believe is possible given the hyperscaler spending surge — expect a wave of upward revisions across the street. Loop Capital Markets already models $9.56 in fiscal 2027 earnings, well above the consensus $7.76. If tonight’s guidance supports that kind of trajectory, the stock could break out of the $180-range it’s been stuck in.

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    • One note of caution: Fundstrat’s Mark Newton has warned about a potential “false breakout” if the numbers merely meet expectations without a blowout guide. After a 47% run year-to-date, good-not-great may not be good enough.

    For investors, the playbook is straightforward. This isn’t just an NVIDIA earnings call — it’s a referendum on the AI capital cycle itself. Strong numbers and a raised outlook validate every hyperscaler’s spending plan and lift the entire AI ecosystem, from server makers like Super Micro and Dell to chip foundries like TSMC. A disappointment would send tremors through a sector that’s priced for perfection. Either way, this is one report you don’t want to miss.